In the Gallup Polls today, Obama is leading in Registered Voters 52%-41%, Likely Voters (Expanded) 52%-43%, and Likely Voters (Traditional) 51%-43%. Interestingly, consumer confidence has gone up one point, and is now at 6% positive to 75% negative; it’s getting close.
The first thing I noticed on the Gallup site was this title: “Little Evidence in Surge of Youth Vote.” Turns out that the level of interest in this year’s election is no higher than in 2004. This year, 18-29 year olds make up 12% of Gallup’s likely voters, as opposed to 13% in 2004.
Gallup reports the implications as this:
“While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.”
I find these numbers incredibly hard to believe. Maybe I have too much faith in my age group. Maybe it’s being surrounded by diehard Obama fans 24/7. I just can’t imagine that with all of the excitement surrounding this year’s election, that there’s going to be less turnout than years passed. Or maybe percentage-wise, people my age will turnout in the same ratio they have before, but in sheer numbers, there will be higher turnout this year. There’s just absolutely no way that the level of enthusiasm I’ve seen plague our campus results in no higher turnout.
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