Palin '12

With all of the work she's done in 2008, will we see Palin again in '12? Her campaign would look radically different than the McCain/Palin campaign--McCain attempted to appeal to the center with his liberal policy positions and distance from Bush. Palin, on the other hand, would have a much more conservative campaign. She would run on decentralization, conservative social values, and free-market capitalism. 

Why would that work? Well if the next 4 years is, as some people fear, a move towards American socialism (really?), then backlash from that would help a conservative ticket in 2012. If we see too much government involvement, too much tax increase, too much spending, and too much government interference with the economy, then Palin's campaign could conceivably be effective. 

Yes, it is a scary thought. How the woman who can see Russia and would have walked with dinosaurs 5,000 years ago could be the most powerful person in the world.... Is beyond me. Good thing we have to wait 4 more years to find out if it could happen. 

On another not, sadly Prop 8 passed in California. This is the first time in California's history that a law has restricted, not enhanced civil rights. Hopefully it will go to the Supreme Court, but the system takes a long time to work through. Fortunately, Prop 4 was defeated for the third time. Maybe it will stop popping up on the ballot so often. 

Yet Another Update

95% of California precincts have reported their results. 

Yes on Prop 8 is ahead 4 points, 52-48%, by about 500,000 votes.

No on Prop 4 is also ahead 4 points, 52-48%, by about 500,000 votes.

Props Update

For recent election updates, go here.

With almost 60% of precincts reporting, Yes on 8 is winning 53-47% and No on 4 is winning 52-48%.

Some Advice for Republicans

This video gives suggestions to the Republican party in the political future:

"The Republican party shouldn't allow the right wing to control it" was the essential advice given. Does that mean McCain would have won if he hadn't chosen Palin? McCain was the poster boy of a centered Republican; he disaffected voters by having liberal policies. I want to know how this Democratic strategist would have changed McCain's campaign based on her advice.

Interesting.

Getting a Little Worried, But There's Still Hope

42% of California precincts are reporting on Prop 8. Yes still leads 52-48% and is up by just over 200,000 votes.

40% of precincts are reporting on Prop 4, and No is leading 52-48% and is up by less than 200,000 votes.

It's getting close. It's 11:22PM West Coast time, and a lot of the rest of the country is staying up to see the results of these propositions. California could determine how other states treat gay marriage; it could be the trend setter either way Prop 8 ends up. California could also fall to the proven dangers of limiting abortions for minors, if Prop 4 passes. Prop 4, in other forms, has been turned down twice before, and hopefully the third time will deter its opponents. 

We'll have to wait and see.

Update 4 (&8)

With only 13% of precincts reporting, Yes on Prop 8 is winning 55-45%. 

:(

With 12% reporting, No on 4 is winning 51-49%

:)

COME ON CALIFORNIA!!!

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It's now 10:17. With 27% of precincts reporting, Yes on 8 is winning 53-47%.

With 22% of precincts reporting, No on 4 is winning 52-48%.

Update 3

It's now 9:08, and McCain has conceded. Barack Obama will be the first black President of the United States. 

Democrats are taking over; they have control of the House and Senate.

Stock markets in other countries are rising.

Palin will not address the country tonight.

I'm still waiting on results for California's Props 4&8... and crossing my fingers. Arizona banned gay marriage, Arkansas banned gay couples from adopting children, Nebraska ended affirmative action, and South Dakota passed abortion limits. But Colorado stopped Amendment 48: Human life at moment of conception. Let's just hope California doesn't follow the trend tonight.

Update 2

It is now 5:11, and the score is Obama 77 college votes to McCain's 34.

I have to leave for the next 3.5 hours for a volleyball game, and by that time, we could have a new President.

But in more entertaining news, I got a call from one of my friends working at the polls for No on 4&8. He's standing next to another one of my male friends, and they've been called homosexuals, in more profane terms, all afternoon. Oh, the joys Election Day holds. 

Updates!

CNN's political ticker reports that 72% of first time voters are voting for Obama; they make up 10% of the voting population today.

As of now, 4PM California time, no states have declared a winner (according to NYTimes). New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Indiana have begun to report, but all under 10% of the votes. Most East Coast states' polls have closed, so it will only be a matter of a few hours until this gets really exciting!

More updates soon.

Election Day!

I woke up at 6 this morning so I could hold signs 100 feet away from a polling site for three hours. And as boring as it sounds, those three hours were far from boring. We ended up standing across from a church, and No on 4&8 signs probably weren't welcome to members of that church. In general, we got a lot of support. A lot of honks, thank yous for being present, and questions about 4 and 8.

On the other hand, we were flipped off a lot, shouted at, and called names. We had one guy come around about seven times telling us why we should vote Yes on 8, telling us a story of a little boy who was killed and therefore gays shouldn't marry. He drove by in his truck later, which had McCain/Palin and Yes on 8 posters duct-taped to it... classy. He put on his McCain mask and shouted, "Guess who the next President is going to be!" Were we really supposed to answer that? One of us did, and he shouted back, "He'll die twenty minutes after inauguration." And Yes-man replied,  "Good! Guess who's going to be President when he dies?" 

So our spokesman again shouted back, "Palin thought dinosaurs were around 5,000 years ago. People were around then." And our trusty Yes-man thoughtfully responded, "Guess where she got that from, the BIBLE!" We were dumbfounded, and had no comeback. Did he seriously just reference dinosaurs in the Bible?

I learned a lot today:

1. Don't park in front of people's driveways, even if you're voting. They will bitch about it in front of their kids, not hesitating to use a string of profanities. 

2. Lines are long, bring a book. 

3. Even if you think you're standing 100 feet away from a polling site, if someone complains, you'll probably have to move unless you have a measuring tape. 

4. Don't stop in the middle of the road with Yes-man trying to explain to a confused voter what Prop 4 and 8 say.

5. If you say good morning first, even people who flick you off will say good morning too.

6. Old women are either super liberal or super conservative; you can never be sure.

All Eyes on U.S.

The world is looking to us and watching our elections as closely as we are. Under world news sections, Campaign ’08 shows up. Tomorrow we choose the most powerful person in the world. And today, the Presidential candidates are attending 10 rallies in 4 time zones.

McCain is pushing hard. He told Indianapolis that “Mac is back” (see this NYTimes article). And Obama is pushing back, addressing a crowd booing McCain’s economic plan, saying, “You don’t need to boo. You need to vote.”

So who is it going to be?

Well, according to PoliticalWire, even Karl Rove is predicting Obama to be the most powerful person in the world. Most polls support Obama’s win. He leads from 2-13% in most polls (see here).

On the other hand, Arianna Huffington declared the Internet the winner of the 2008 election cycle. I agree, the Internet has overall positive approval ratings and represents all of the voices of a democracy. 

By this time tomorrow, all eyes will be on watching every internet, television, and radio leak. We may know who is the winner, we may not. We may have unprecedented voter turnout, we may not. We may encounter problems at polls, we probably will. Tomorrow will be predictable, and it will be unpredictable. It's a paradox, but hey... That's American politics.

Numbers, Numbers, Numbers

In the Gallup Polls today, Obama is leading in Registered Voters 52%-41%, Likely Voters (Expanded) 52%-43%, and Likely Voters (Traditional) 51%-43%. Interestingly, consumer confidence has gone up one point, and is now at 6% positive to 75% negative; it’s getting close.

The first thing I noticed on the Gallup site was this title: “Little Evidence in Surge of Youth Vote.” Turns out that the level of interest in this year’s election is no higher than in 2004. This year, 18-29 year olds make up 12% of Gallup’s likely voters, as opposed to 13% in 2004.

Gallup reports the implications as this:

“While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.”

I find these numbers incredibly hard to believe. Maybe I have too much faith in my age group. Maybe it’s being surrounded by diehard Obama fans 24/7. I just can’t imagine that with all of the excitement surrounding this year’s election, that there’s going to be less turnout than years passed. Or maybe percentage-wise, people my age will turnout in the same ratio they have before, but in sheer numbers, there will be higher turnout this year. There’s just absolutely no way that the level of enthusiasm I’ve seen plague our campus results in no higher turnout. 

Negative Waste

Is trash talking useful? In the long run, yes. It’s informative and acts as a check on candidate’s claims. But I’ve been getting irritated when every speech is only half information and half bashing (cough PALIN cough). 

CNN reports that Palin spent her weekend in Flordia, addressing the 3 million seniors over 65. The article was critical of Palin’s negative turn in her speech, saying Obama exploited seniors’ fears, and calling his tax plan “phony.”

The most irritating thing reported in the article was this:

“Palin also continued to repeat a claim, which has been debunked, that ‘according to an independent analysis, our opponent's new policies will destroy nearly 6 million jobs over the next decade.’ She later made the same claim at rallies in Central Florida and Raleigh, North Carolina.

I mean come on! You’ve been proved wrong, you can’t keep telling the public the same lie. Well, I guess you can and that’s American politics, but at least try to be a little more inconspicuous.I’d much rather hear why your plan is BETTER, not why the Democrat’s plan sucks. But you can’t always get what you want. Most Americans disapprove of negative campaigning, yet we can’t get enough of it. We’re watching the crash on the side of the road, with no empathy and a lot of time wasted waiting in traffic. We’re a consumer culture; we eat up anything that entertains us. Palin’s negative campaigning isn’t exactly what we want, but it’s getting us talking about her, and it’s giving her exposure in the media. Three days before the election, it has to be an all out effort.  

Pumpkin Palin and Prop 8

With all of the Prop 8 information floating around our campus, it’s interesting to see the presidential candidates’ opinions on it. For non-California voters, Prop 8 would amend the California constitution to make gay marriage illegal. Prop 8 would be the first time civil rights were limited in California (see here for more information).It’s such an important proposition, because both sides know that if California goes gay, the rest of the country will follow.

A New York Times article outlines the differences between Obama’s and McCain’s disapproval of gay marriage. Fortunately, neither supports a ban on gay marriage, but both also would rather have civil unions rather than gay marriage.

Obama bases his opposition on religion—as a proud Christian, he believes that “marriage is a sacred union.” McCain on the other hand, bases his opposition on “generational and cultural experiences,” according to his advisors.

In California, Obama has spoken against Prop 8 and its opponents. McCain agrees with Prop 8, but as a federalist republican, would not support a federal amendment to ban gay marriage.

Sarah Palin follows McCain’s disapproval of gay marriage and support for Prop 8, but probably for reasons other than the generational gap. Now, I can’t speak for Palin, but I assume that stems from her conservative religious views. My question is, if the biggest reason to oppose gay marriage is because of religion, what happened to a separation of church/state? I thought we were trying to get religion out of politics. Or even the argument, “I can’t even imagine myself doing that!” Well duh, don’t do it then. But look at history: we banned persons of color from marrying whites, and look how well that turned out. I’m a product of an interracial marriage, and I look back on those laws and see how ridiculous they were. Hopefully, generations from now will look back on the days when homosexual couples weren’t able to get married and raise a family together, and see how ridiculous it was.

On an unrelated note, Palin looks amazing as a pumpkin.